Four European countries impose short-selling ban

France and three other European countries are banning short selling, with the moves coming after weeks of wild swings in global equity markets, reflecting investor worries about slowing growth, debt burdens and credit downgrades.

Belgium, Italy and Spain round out the other countries that will impose or extend existing short-selling bans beginning Friday, according to a statement from the European Securities and Marketing Authority late Thursday. The ESMA coordinates securities and trading rules among European Union member states.

Short sales are bets that a stock price will decline over time. In a regular short sale, the seller borrows a stock and sells it, understanding that the loan must be repaid by buying the stock.

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Roubini warns of global recession risk

Economist Nouriel Roubini says the risk of a global recession is greater than 50%, and the next two to three months will reveal the economy's direction. "This is not the time to be in risky assets," he says.

The authorities in the respective countries have decided to impose the bans “either to restrict the benefits that can be achieved from spreading false rumors or to achieve a regulatory level playing field, given the close inter-linkage between some E.U. markets, ESMA said.

The French ban will prevent creating a short position or increasing any net-short position in French securities in the financial sector, according to French regulator AMF in a statement. The order covers 11 entities, including BNP Paribas FR:BNP +0.31%  , Crédit Agricole FR:ACA +5.14%  and Société Générale FR:GLE +3.70%  .

Shares of French banks were rocked this week, in part on fears that France could lose its AAA credit rating, though surges on Thursday helped limit losses toward week’s end. The shares faced weekly losses ranging from 12% to 16%.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index XX:SXXP +3.16%  was on track for a weekly decline of more than 3%.

The ban on short sales recalls an order by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in September 2008 that prohibited short sales of 799 financial stocks through October of that year. Read about the 2008 short-selling ban on U.S. financial stocks.

The other entities affected by the short-selling ban by France are April Group, AXA SA FR:CS +3.88%  , CIC, CNP Assurances FR:CNP -1.39%  , Euler Hermès FR:ELE +3.63%  , Natixis FR:KN +6.34% , Paris Ré, and Scor.

Carla Mozee is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in Los Angeles.

The "Real" Consumer Remains in a Recession

The Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that retail sales increased 0.5% in July.

The first chart shows the complete series from 1992, when the U.S. Census Bureau began tracking the data.

I've highlighted recessions and the approximate range of two major economic episodes.

The Tech Crash that began in the spring of 2000 had relatively little impact on consumption.

The Financial Crisis of 2008 has had a major impact.

After the cliff-dive of the Great Recession, the recovery in retail sales has taken us (in nominal terms) 3.2% above November 2007 pre-recession peak.

Below, is the same chart with two trendlines added. These are linear regressions computed with the Excel Growth function.

The green trendline is a regression through the entire data series. The latest sales figure is 6.9% below the green line end point.

The blue line is a regression through the end of 2007 and extrapolated to the present. Thus, the blue line excludes the impact of the Financial Crisis. The latest sales figure is 16.3% below the blue line end point.

We normally evaluate monthly data on a month-over-month or year-over-year basis. The July 0.5% increase over June is encouraging, and the 8.6% increase over July 2010 gives a even more positive perspective. On the other hand, a snapshot of the larger historical context illustrates the devastating impact of the Financial Crisis on the U.S. economy.

The "Real" Retail Story: The Consumer Economy Remains in a Recession

How much insight into the state of the economy does the nominal retail sales report offer? The next chart gives us a perspective on the extent to which this indicator is skewed by inflation and population growth. The nominal sales number shows a cumulative growth of nearly 138% since the beginning of this series. Adjust for population growth and the growth drops to 94%. And when we adjust for both population growth and inflation, retail sales are up only 18.9% over the past two decades.

The charts below give us a rather different view of the U.S. retail economy and the long-term behavior of the consumer. The sales numbers are adjusted for population growth and inflation. For the population data I've used the Bureau of Economic Analysis mid-month series available from the St. Louis FRED with a linear extrapolation for the latest month. Inflation is based on the latest Consumer Price Index. July retail sales adjusted accordingly also rose 0.5% month-over-month but only 4.2% year-over-year, about half the nominal increase.

Consider: During the past 21 years, the U.S. population has grown by over 22% while the dollar has lost about 39% of its purchasing power to inflation. When we adjust accordingly, the rebound in retail sales from the bottom in April 2009 merely gets us back to the per capita spending of of July 1999, twelve years ago.

Retail sales have been recovering since the trough in 2009. But the "real" consumer economy, adjusted for population growth is still in recession territory — 10.0% below its all-time high in January 2006.

As I mentioned at the outset, nominal retail sales rose 0.1% in June. However, high gasoline prices essentially act as a tax on economic growth: The more we spend on gasoline, the less we have to spend on other goods. With this concept in mind, let's look at the real, population-adjusted retail sales excluding gasoline.

By this analysis, adjusted retail sales ex gasoline rose 0.4% in July from the previous month and 2.5% year-over-year, but it is down 10.9% below its all-time high in January 2006.

The Great Recession of the Financial Crisis is behind us, but a close analysis of retail sales suggests that the recovery has been weak. And in "real" terms — adjusted for population growth and inflation — the consumer economy clearly remains in a recession.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-consumer-remains-in-a-recession-2011-8#ixzz1UpZA5zpG

By:

Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives

Top 10 real-estate markets in U.S. college towns

Top 10 real-estate markets in U.S. college towns
City	Median List Price	Y/Y Change	Average 2 bedroom rent	Average 3+ bedroom rent	Average mortgage
	($)	(%)	($)	($)	($)
Boston	335,000	-2.62	3,122	3,913	1,370
Nashville, Tenn.	189,900	-0.05	949	1,020	770
Chicago	199,900	-16.36	1,780	2,074	820
Washington	375,000	5.63	3,086	3,214	1,530
Houston	174,900	-0.06	1,218	1,478	710
South Bend, Ind.	112,900	7.53	790	880	460
Atlanta	159,600	-13.68	1,236	1,485	650
Baltimore	242,700	-7.72	1,443	1,663	990
St. Louis	163,945	-3.51	1,016	1,283	670
Syracuse, N.Y.	154,900	-3.13	838	970	630

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-10-real-estate-markets-in-us-college-towns-2011-08-10